Teen Tourney wild Card Satndings (spoilers)

[John Boy]

Originally Posted by chuck5982

So Lindsay and Solomon have locked up wildcards, Rachel and Samantha are still alive, while Bonny, Emily, Kennedy, and Forrest have been eliminated?

Yeah. Rachel looks good to advance, barring a game tonight in which all three players end up with >$13,800 (seems highly unlikely). Samantha is "on the bubble," as they say at Indy, the next one in position to be bumped. Given that 3 of the other 7 non-winners this week have exceeded her score, there's no telling whether she will move on. I'll wager she and her family watched game 5 with a ton of apprehension and excitement.

I really wonder what happens in the second round. Despite some dominating performances by the winners so far, I don't see any bad players advancing, and the scramble to advance to the finals may be a wide-open race.

[LifelongJeopfan]

I wouldn't rest too easily with $13,800. Five of the eight non-winners had scores of at least half that at the end of DJ. So bold wagering could knock her out.

[mrmdpgh]

Remember that the contestants are sequestered and don't know what took place in the prior games. They are all sitting in the green room eating ding dongs and so have no idea how to bet in FJ.

[MattOttinger]

Originally Posted by mrmdpgh

Remember that the contestants are sequestered and don't know what took place in the prior games. They are all sitting in the green room eating ding dongs and so have no idea how to bet in FJ.

Believe me, just about all of us who've spent any amount of time watching the show already know this. It would be way too much of an advantage for people playing on Friday to know specifically what number they should be shooting for.

[TKofG]

It's interesting to read this thread on Friday, after all the early week comments and predictions have been exposed to a week of changes. I've only been able to watch a couple of the shows this week, but I remember wishing on Monday that Emily had wagered higher. What did she have to lose? Quarterfinals Jeopardy! is always the funnest week there is for people who like the science(?) of wagering.

[dhkendall]

Originally Posted by mrmdpgh

Remember that the contestants are sequestered and don't know what took place in the prior games. They are all sitting in the green room eating ding dongs and so have no idea how to bet in FJ.

Well, they know (or should know) how to place a bet in FJ, just not what number to shoot for. They know (or should know) to go for the biggest number they can to guarantee them a place, not just to beat by $1 or whatever, and they know (or should know) that QF FJ betting is different than regular play betting.

This hasn't been consistently reflected in bets actually made though.

[therealdbear]

Originally Posted by LifelongJeopfan

Emily becomes the first to miss a SF spot due to bad wagering on FJ.

Yup, called it in the Monday thread.

[tlashley]

Originally Posted by dhkendall

Well, they know (or should know) how to place a bet in FJ, just not what number to shoot for. They know (or should know) to go for the biggest number they can to guarantee them a place, not just to beat by $1 or whatever, and they know (or should know) that QF FJ betting is different than regular play betting.

This hasn't been consistently reflected in bets actually made though.

How does one wager in QF FJ? Would like to be a contestant on the Teen Tourney next year...

[DWS]

Hopefully next year's contestants come across this thread. Knowing that the wildcard cutoff was $13,800 this year might give them a sense of what is needed to make the semifinals.

[TimValenzuela]

Originally Posted by DWS

Hopefully next year's contestants come across this thread. Knowing that the wildcard cutoff was $13,800 this year might give them a sense of what is needed to make the semifinals.

I don't know about that. Last year, Audrey Hosford got the last wildcard spot with an $8,200 score in her QF. Any other year, she doesn't advance to the semis. That year, she got in and won her semifinal game. I guess what I'm saying is that shooting for a certain number is a case of "be careful what you wish for" because there's no guarantee that that's going to be the cutoff. Obviously, I'm probably making an unpopular comment here, but for whatever the reason is, shooting for a specific number, even with the research and all, might not work in some instances, at least for me. But I just might be a bit of an oddball in my own right. Oh well.

[econgator]

Originally Posted by tlashley

How does one wager in QF FJ? Would like to be a contestant on the Teen Tourney next year...

Generally speaking, if you aren't in the lead in a lock game, you bet to maximize your winnings (go all in). Now, there are some exceptions. For example, if you end in 2nd place, but have 15k+, then you might want to just stand pat (or bet very little).

[cheezguyty]

They have the semifinal match-ups listed on the Jeopardy! website:

Monday
Zach Blumenfeld
Aidan Mehigan
Hema Karunakaram

Tuesday
Will Dantzler
Gabriel Johnson
Solomon Howard

Wednesday
Lindsay Oxx
Rachel Rothenberg
Gabe Orlet

[cheezguyty]

The semifinal match-ups seemed slightly unbalanced, with 3 winners in the first match and 3 wild-cards in the third match. Here are the combined totals for each match-up from their quarterfinals results:

Monday
$93,700

Tuesday
$59,797

Wednesday
$48,200

Also, of the 7 boys in the tournament, 6 of them made it to the semis. Only 3 of the 8 girls did so.

[LifelongJeopfan]

Hema seemed to get a tough draw. She was the lowest scoring winner and goes against the top two winners.

[LifelongJeopfan]

I'd say QF wagering is pretty much a crapshoot. You have no idea what score you need. The historical records can be a guide, but they are no guarentee that $15,000 will get you in any more than $8,000 will keep you out.

Here is a thread someone keeps with all the records of tourney wild cards.

http://boards.sonypictures.com/board...ad.php?t=35089

[ClammyJim]

Thursday just is a lucky day I guess, all three contestants moved on from that day. But, that brings up a question that I've always wondered: has the final game in any tournament contained all the same contestants from a QF game? Just like how in this tournament, it is possible to have Aidan, Soloman, and Rachel all in the final.

[LifelongJeopfan]

Since I missed Thursday's game, I hope they do make it so I can see their rematch.

[K703]

Originally Posted by econgator

Generally speaking, if you aren't in the lead in a lock game, you bet to maximize your winnings (go all in). Now, there are some exceptions. For example, if you end in 2nd place, but have 15k+, then you might want to just stand pat (or bet very little).

No, if you're in the lead by any amount (not counting a tie for the lead) in a QF you should never bet more than what is necessary to cover a double-up by the player in 2nd by a dollar (except for possibly a "math error" cushion if you want to). Betting anything more than that is like throwing away cash, since your chances of winning aren't any higher if you get FJ! right with any higher bet (and you diminish your chances of moving on if you get FJ! wrong). (This statement could also apply in tournament SFs as well since you're not playing for cash winnings based on your score but rather just a spot in the finals, but it is especially important in QFs where every little bet left over if you're wrong can make the difference between getting a WC or not.)

If you're trailing in a QF game, in my opinion the situation is too complicated for me to give any specific advice here but here's some factors to consider:

• How you feel about the FJ! category (e.g. that's why Tom Morris in the last ToC bet $0 in his QF despite having only $9,600 going into FJ!).
• Whether or not you have a chance at automatically winning if the leader gets FJ! wrong and bets to cover you (e.g. say you're in 2nd with $12,000 and the leader has $17,000 with 3rd not playing FJ!; in such case you have two rational strategies [you can either bet big to make a WC very likely if you're right or you can apply the 2/3 rule against the leader to automatically win a TS if he/she bets to cover you and misses]).
• The position of the other trailer (e.g. if you have him/her locked out betting to stay above his/her maximum possible score); although you don't know about your competitors from the other games you do know about the ones who play in the same game as you and you can tailor your wager based on those circumstances.
• With your current score how much you'd improve your situation by betting $0 vs. going all-in (e.g. if you have say $2,000 going into FJ! betting it all would probably only marginally increase your chances of a WC, with $8,000 going all-in or nearly so probably makes the most sense unless one of the points above would call for a smaller bet, and with $20,000 you're probably best off by betting $0 or some other small amount [such as one to apply the 3/4 or 4/5 rule against the leader]).

[MarkBarrett]

Originally Posted by ClammyJim

Thursday just is a lucky day I guess, all three contestants moved on from that day. But, that brings up a question that I've always wondered: has the final game in any tournament contained all the same contestants from a QF game? Just like how in this tournament, it is possible to have Aidan, Soloman, and Rachel all in the final.

May 1992 College had finalists Billy, Nick and Stephanie who also met in QF5.

[xela]

It's the all-guy Tuesday on Jeopardy. Blah